Korea Republic vs Germany
If the first 11 days of World Cup 2018 have taught us anything, it’s that us tips don’t always come true.
Few World Cup 2018 predictions expected Argentina to be held by minnows Iceland, or world champions Germany to slip up against Mexico, or that Iran and Morocco would hold European champions Portugal and Spain respectively.
However, for me, there is one certainty which remains in this tournament and has been apparent for the majority of World Cups in my lifetime: you can never write off the Germans!
Following Germany’s opening-day defeat to Mexico, the talking point was the possibility of the Germans going out in the group stages.
After all, how could the reigning world champions be beaten at the first hurdle for the third World Cup finals in a row?
The situation has clearly changed though, and the talking point now is: did you really ever bet against the Germans?
Toni Kroos’ 95th-minute wonder strike allowed them to avoid total elimination, and the Germans proved right there and then that they remain strong title contenders—living up to the pre-tournament hype.
Now, the onus is well and truly on them seeing off spirited South Korea and making sure they book their place in the last 16.
Germany are roaring back in Russia, and that should worry every other side in the tournament.
One German publication summed it up perfectly when it said: “Blood, sweat and tears. And then came Kroos.”
After coming back from the brink, much to the unhappiness of the Swedes, they can’t afford to rest on their laurels. But I don’t think they will.
Yes, Korea can still mathematically qualify—the only team to lose their first two games and still have a chance of reaching the knockout stages.
Although their team news is not positive and their odds are low, Korea will still make it on goal difference if they manage to beat Germany by a two-goal margin and Mexico beat Sweden by one goal.
And for the Germans to qualify, they must win by a two-goal margin.
A one-goal victory would mean they would need Mexico to beat Sweden by one goal or Sweden to see off Mexico by two goals.
Of course, a draw in that game will suffice too, so long as the Germans win.
The permutations are that wide.
I hope you got all that as you will be tested on it later!
Anyway, realistically, Germany should take care of their side of the business against the Son Heung-Min-led South Koreans, who have only shown glimpses of their talent.
The Taegeuk Warriors had hoped for distinctly more than that, even in such a tough group.
Two of the three goals they have conceded so far have come from the penalty spot, something which the Germans may prey on.
Low will have to make changes after Sebastian Rudy broke his nose against Sweden and Jerome Boateng was sent off.
Germany, once again, hold their destiny in their own hands and are unlikely to be disrupted.
Whatever the daily World Cup 2018 news brings, the importance of that fact cannot be underestimated.
When these sides meet in the World Cup, the Germans have always won.
In the 1994 World Cup, Germany ran out 3-2 winners but were always in control after racing into a 3-0 lead before easing off.
In 2002, they were pushed all the way before emerging 1-0 winners against the co-hosts in the semi-finals—South Korea’s best performance at the World Cup by a distance.
A 3-1 friendly win two years later remains Korea’s only victory against the Germans. How they need another now.
What are the odds?
If South Korea pull off an unlikely triumph, it would earn you good money with 1X2 odds @ 11.50. Even the draw would do you well at 7.20, with Germany @ 1.20.
Even to lead after the opening 45 minutes, Korea Republic 1X2 comes in at 9.00 with a First Half draw priced at 1.59.
A fairly comfortable win for the Germans will pay out a limited amount with Asian Handicap betting: Germany -2.25 @ 2.40.
The one that has caught my eye is First Half Asian Handicap Germany -1.00 @ 2.29.
Total Goal 4-6 is priced @ 2.37 while a repeat of the eventual 3-2 clash at USA ’94 will get you odds of 38.00.
In the unlikely event of a goalless draw, no goal will pay out at 20.00 with Germany to win by three goals @ 7.20.
As for who is most likely to qualify from Group F, the dual forecast odds are Germany/Mexico @ 1.45 and Germany/Sweden @ 2.90.
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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